Fed Locked In — April Hold at 98%, But 2026 Rate Path Wide Open

Markets are pricing a near-certain hold in April at 98%, but the 2026 rate cut distribution is remarkably split: 32% chance of zero cuts, 28% for one cut, and a long tail of aggressive easing scenarios. The Fed rate before 2027 markets show only 75% chance of even reaching 3.25%. This uncertainty creates rich relative value trades between rate path brackets.