US-Iran Invasion at Coin-Flip Odds — The Market's Most Dangerous Bet

The probability of US invading Iran before 2027 sits at 49% with over $211K in 24h volume — essentially a coin flip on a catastrophic geopolitical event. This is the single highest-volume geopolitical binary market and correlates with gold surging +3.7% and oil dropping -3.4%. Traders should monitor this as a leading indicator for defense and energy plays.