S&P Surges 3.1% But Recession Fears Persist — A Contradiction Worth Trading

The S&P 500 is up 3.1% with VIX down nearly 10%, yet prediction markets show 30% recession probability by end of 2026 and rising odds of near-zero GDP growth. Treasury yield markets are pricing in a flight to safety with 66% chance yields dip below 3.9%. This divergence between equity euphoria and macro bearishness creates opportunities on both sides.