Fed April Decision: 97¢ for No Change Despite Market Chaos

Despite extreme volatility, the Fed decision market for April is pricing 97¢ for no change — the Fed isn't blinking. But the full 2026 rate cut distribution is fascinating: 39¢ for zero cuts vs. meaningful probability mass across 1-3 cuts. The emergency cut probability at 19¢ with decent volume suggests tail risk is being actively priced. This is the most important divergence between equity markets (panicking) and rates markets (holding steady).