Fed Holding Firm: 97% No Change in April, Zero Cuts Most Likely for 2026

The April FOMC 'no change' outcome sits at 97% on Polymarket with $497K in volume. For all of 2026, zero rate cuts is now the single most likely outcome at 38%, followed by one cut at 25%. With inflation expected above 4% (57% probability) and tariff uncertainty mounting, the market is pricing a prolonged higher-for-longer environment.