Iran Regime Fall at 36%, Nuclear Deal at 50%: Divergent Middle East Scenarios

Markets are pricing two very different Iran outcomes simultaneously: a 36% chance the regime falls entirely before 2027, yet a 50% chance of a US-Iran nuclear deal. Iran nuke probability is at 12% while nuclear test odds are at 13%. US invasion of Iran is priced at a concerning 67%. These probabilities suggest traders see a volatile, binary outcome space for US-Iran relations.