Iran Risk Complex: Regime Fall at 34%, Nuke at 12%, US Invasion at 64%

Iran-related markets form a complex risk picture: regime fall by 2027 at 34%, nuclear weapon at 12%, US invasion at 64% (though this may reflect broad interpretation), and NPT withdrawal at 28%. The US-Iran nuclear deal market sits at 49% — essentially a coin flip. These markets collectively suggest elevated geopolitical tail risk in the Middle East that could cascade into oil and equity markets.