Risk-Off Day: VIX Surges 10% While S&P Drops 2.2% — Markets Pricing Hawkish Fed

The VIX is up nearly 10% to $38.26 while the S&P 500 falls 2.24%. Oil is surging 7.58% on supply concerns. Prediction markets show 34% chance of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 (the single most likely outcome), and the April Fed decision is locked at 97% no-change. The US recession probability for 2026 sits at 37%, and inflation markets show 57% chance of CPI exceeding 4% this year.