Russia-Ukraine War Dynamics Shifting: Kostyantynivka and Election Signals

Two important Ukraine war signals today: Russia's probability of capturing Kostyantynivka by April jumped 5¢ to 25¢ (by June now 60¢), suggesting battlefield momentum. Simultaneously, Ukraine election probability by June jumped 5¢ to 9¢ — a potential indicator that political conditions for negotiations are evolving. Peace deal by 2027 still only 24¢ but ceasefire by 2026 at 28¢.