Tariff Shock Rattles Everything: VIX +10%, S&P -2.2%, Oil +7.6%

Today's market action screams risk-off. VIX surged 10% to 38.26, S&P 500 dropped 2.2%, and oil spiked 7.6% on tariff escalation fears. Prediction markets show US recession probability at 37¢, zero Fed cuts leading at 39¢, and emergency rate cut probability at 19¢. The 10-year yield low-watermark market just surged 14¢ — bond bulls are suddenly pricing in a flight to safety.