2026 Midterms: Democrats 85% to Flip House, Texas Emerging as Battleground

Democrats are heavy favorites at 85% to win the House while the Senate is a genuine toss-up at 51-49. Texas is surprisingly competitive: the Senate race is 44D/56R, the governor race saw a 9-point Democratic surge, and Ken Paxton leads the GOP Senate primary at 64% over Cornyn at 34%. The Texas primary dynamics could reshape national politics.