Fed Holds, But 2026 Rate Path Highly Uncertain

April hold is locked at 98%, but the 2026 rate cut distribution is remarkably flat: 37% for zero cuts, 24% for one, 18% for two. This is the market saying 'we have no idea.' Combined with inflation above 3% priced at 98% for 2026 and recession at 36%, traders should watch for any break in the data that collapses this uncertainty.