Iran Conflict Odds at All-Time Highs: US Invasion at 59%, Regime Fall at 34%

Markets are pricing a historically elevated probability of US military action against Iran (59%) alongside a 34% chance the Iranian regime falls before 2027. The regime has 30% odds of withdrawing from the NPT, and nuclear test probability is at 10%. These interconnected markets suggest traders see a serious escalation pathway in the coming months.