Treasury Yield Crash Bets Surge — Flight to Safety Accelerating

The probability of 10-year Treasury yields hitting 3.9% before 2027 surged +14¢ to 67¢, the largest move in fixed income markets. Meanwhile, TLT is up nearly 1% today. With the Fed locked at no-change (97¢) for April and inflation fears above 4% at 61¢, traders are pricing in a stagflationary scenario where rates eventually plunge on recession fears.