US-Iran Invasion Market at 55¢ — Biggest Geopolitical Bet

The probability of US invading Iran before 2027 sits at 55¢ with $160K+ in volume, making it the most actively traded geopolitical risk market. It dipped 3¢ today suggesting slight de-escalation, but the market also prices Iran's NPT withdrawal at 30¢ and nuclear weapon at 11¢. The Iran nuclear deal market sits at 49¢. These are correlated bets worth monitoring together.