Russia Advancing in Ukraine — Kostyantynivka and Lyman Front Lines Moving

Russia's probability of capturing Kostyantynivka by April 2026 jumped 5¢ to 18%, while Lyman capture by April rose 2¢ to 11%. Yet ceasefire probability before 2027 sits at only 30%, and Ukraine peace deal at 25%. The Russia-Ukraine Peace Parlay trades at just 17¢. Meanwhile Putin-Zelenskyy meeting has 79% chance of NOT happening before 2027.