Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 66% probability that Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 66¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The 67¢ price implies a 67% probability that Solana touches $60 by year-end 2026, yet the asymmetric implied yields (69.4% for Yes versus 286% for No) suggest significant mispricing, with the No side offering substantially better risk-adjusted returns at 286%.
Analysis
The 67¢ price implies a 67% probability that Solana touches $60 by year-end 2026, yet the asymmetric implied yields (69.4% for Yes versus 286% for No) suggest significant mispricing, with the No side offering substantially better risk-adjusted returns at 286%. The sharp 6-cent price decline over seven days combined with elevated realized volatility of 152% and a vol ratio of 1.88 indicates heightened uncertainty, though the thin $107.81 daily volume and modest $27,097 open interest raise liquidity concerns for a market with 259 days to expiry.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Solana (SOL/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance SOL/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
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sf trade 0x0135f2ed385fd81fa2af3b98720ee3ba440ea4a719636c1493f15a23366fc27e yes 100