What price will Solana hit in 2026?
Leader sits at 75% across 17 bound outcomes, runner-up at 68%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑ 90
Outcomes
17
winner-take-all
Runner-up
68¢
↓ 60
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$33K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
199 days
Venue
Polymarket
17 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price will Solana hit in 2026
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 60
0x0135f2…c27e
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 20
0x0bccf8…bae6
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 50
0xfe1c00…927d
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 160
0x715479…54a3
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 260
0x5a353d…bdee
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 30
0x010ed9…ac14
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 40
0x5c2f3a…7e67
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 240
0x19ecee…cd89
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 180
0x88ceaf…a52e
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 140
0x8b2c46…3bdd
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 100
0xa99207…febc
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 80
0x83e5d4…289c
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 120
0x7bd108…b4c2
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 280
0x5c1d1a…9ab8
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 200
0x53351e…6c1f
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 90
0x04834e…7152
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 220
0x7b2484…c4cb
Analysis
This market estimates a 62% probability that Solana will trade below $20 by the end of 2026. The estimate reflects bearish sentiment relative to Solana's historical price levels, driven primarily by broader cryptocurrency market volatility and concerns about network adoption. Major factors influencing this probability include macroeconomic conditions affecting risk assets, regulatory developments for cryptocurrencies, and Solana-specific metrics around transaction volume and developer activity. The resolution depends on Solana's year-end trading price, which will be determined by market conditions throughout 2026. Current trading volume across related crypto contracts suggests modest conviction, with significant price movement potential if key technical levels are breached or if major announcements affect institutional adoption of the network.
- ›Solana's current price relative to $20 threshold determines the minimum move required for the down-outcome to resolve
- ›Regulatory announcements or enforcement actions targeting major cryptocurrency exchanges or staking protocols could accelerate downward pressure
- ›Developer migration patterns and transaction throughput metrics will indicate whether network adoption trends support higher valuations
- ›Macroeconomic interest rate policy and risk-asset sentiment will disproportionately affect volatile cryptocurrency prices
- ›Historical volatility of Solana suggests significant price moves are feasible regardless of fundamental network developments
What moved the line
- Jun 12↓ 30↓27pp50→23¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10↑ 140↓23pp50→27¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 11↓ 30↑18pp32→50¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 9↓ 30↓15pp49→34¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 11↑ 80↓14pp69→55¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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