Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Polymarket, closing November 13, 2026. Bobby Witt Jr.'s odds have collapsed from 18¢ to 10¢ over the past week, suggesting significant negative information flow (0.7 info arrivals per hour), yet the market shows extreme illiquidity with only $200 in 24-hour volume against $1.18M open interest and a 14¢ spread.
Analysis
Bobby Witt Jr.'s odds have collapsed from 18¢ to 10¢ over the past week, suggesting significant negative information flow (0.7 info arrivals per hour), yet the market shows extreme illiquidity with only $200 in 24-hour volume against $1.18M open interest and a 14¢ spread. The 1559% implied yield on the yes side combined with a 963% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 9 indicates this is a highly speculative position with substantial tail risk, likely reflecting either genuine doubt about Witt Jr.'s 2026 performance or thin market conditions that have allowed the price to drift disconnected from fundamental expectations.
Also on kalshi at 10¢(Δ -1¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x01bc044b2cb4175110308b6d35feb6fa8dfe96881108c0a9bb5743a6248209d6 yes 100