Cal Raleigh to win MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron
Cal Raleigh is priced at 2¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 10 inside MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner.
Price history
2¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Cal Raleigh
Rank
#6 of 10
Leader
Yordan Alvarez 26¢
Range
1¢-26¢
Family volume
$411K
Identifier
0x3da34b89...877f
Jun 17, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 26m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$4K
Family rank
#6 of 10
10 outcomes · MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner
Closes
Nov 13, 2026
Family volume
$411K
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Nov 13, 2026
Identifier
0x3da34b89…877f
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 6¢, -4¢ versus this page.
Event family
MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$411K
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Yordan Alvarez 26¢
Current share
1%
Yordan Alvarez
polymarket · 0x396b535aa31e56ac8cef5b26f271eb5c132b3dbe6e10988d49f88d63fc3bfd58
Nick Kurtz
polymarket · 0xb509c405fd1320c8509c45218fb4a8c2579cc255c6130e0bd714ab165cc8fcd4
Bobby Witt Jr.
polymarket · 0x01bc044b2cb4175110308b6d35feb6fa8dfe96881108c0a9bb5743a6248209d6
José Ramírez
polymarket · 0x6359895f8a3da37cb8c9568b40fc418e7b7c8fc5365a605ce5275fda5aaf44d7
Julio Rodríguez
polymarket · 0x2dd5e7b822f28c63abff6c4308f41b1b3471145127a318d82c6cb02b216b6f85
Aaron Judge
polymarket · 0xb040d3eff979a01b34d6c5952faf1c490e77c7a4f8dff3733e3d826d37525c2d
Cal Raleigh
polymarket · 0x3da34b8984fc18f9894a7afb26e68fa4bee5f060d11549f61256336cafee877f
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
polymarket · 0xeda10cc8809a8a6f8723b6ba1dabac71bebf02844fc1d422292d73bfc0b7ebde
Gunnar Henderson
polymarket · 0xeb0cd3ab2569257a3586b8dddeae802dfe4da91b6ad9ca610001f84894f94523
Corey Seager
polymarket · 0x9169a4ac35044157c846fda10e0aa5ef9d6695f4c0a89de2d8cd33181ab5094e
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 2% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.