Will Aaron Judge win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award?

Judge is trading at a notable 3¢ discount on Polymarket (26¢) versus Kalshi (29¢), suggesting potential arbitrage opportunity, though the 9¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume indicate thin liquidity that may constrain execution. The 498% implied yield on the Yes side reflects extreme skew given the long 209-day timeframe and modest $1.4M open interest, while the 2384% realized volatility and 8.35 vol ratio signal this market has experienced outsized price swings despite the recent 62% rally from 16¢ to 26¢. With 3.2 information arrivals per hour and a neutral regime, the market appears positioned to react sharply to Judge's 2026 performance data as it accumulates.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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