MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner
Leader sits at 27% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Yordan Alvarez
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
15¢
2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: N
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$317
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 13, 2026
148 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner
MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Aaron Judge
0xb040d3…5c2d
MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Yordan Alvarez
0x396b53…fd58
MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
0xeda10c…ebde
MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Nick Kurtz
0xb509c4…fcd4
MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: José Ramírez
0x635989…44d7
MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Julio Rodríguez
0x2dd5e7…6f85
MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Bobby Witt Jr.
0x01bc04…09d6
Analysis
The current 35% probability indicates that one specific player is considered the favorite to win the 2026 AL Hank Aaron Award (given to the league's top hitter), though the lack of a clear consensus shows genuine uncertainty in the market. The level reflects early-season performance data and preseason expectations; it could shift upward if the current leader maintains a significant batting average or slugging percentage advantage through the season, or downward if other contenders emerge with stronger offensive numbers. The main catalyst driving resolution will be the accumulation of actual 2026 batting statistics through the regular season, with final voting occurring after the season concludes in late September or early October. Currently, no single player has priced-in dominance comparable to the 36% assigned to Shohei Ohtani in the NL race, suggesting the AL field remains fragmented.
- ›Current leader's cumulative offensive production (batting average, slugging percentage, RBIs) versus nearest competitors through mid-season and into September
- ›Injury status and availability of top contenders, which would directly affect their statistical accumulation and voting eligibility
- ›Historical voting patterns for the Hank Aaron Award, including whether voters favor traditional counting stats (RBIs, hits) or rate-based metrics (average, OPS)
- ›Relative strength of individual competitors' teams and playoff success, which can influence voter perception in close races
- ›Market concentration: the leader holds 35% while runner-up holds 26%, indicating fragmentation across remaining candidates rather than broad consensus
What moved the line
- Jun 102026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Nick Kurtz↑11pp12→23¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 152026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Bobby Witt Jr.↓10pp19→9¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 112026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Nick Kurtz↓9pp23→14¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 162026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Yordan Alvarez↑5pp33→38¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 172026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Yordan Alvarez↓5pp38→33¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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