Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner
Leader sits at 92% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Phil Scott
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
John Rodgers
Spread
83pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
78 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner
Analysis
Phil Scott holds a 95% market probability to win the Vermont Republican gubernatorial primary, reflecting strong expectations that he will secure the nomination. Scott, Vermont's incumbent governor, benefits from substantial name recognition, an established political apparatus, and the structural advantage of incumbency in primary contests. The primary outcome depends heavily on whether credible challengers emerge or consolidate support before voting occurs, and on voter appetite for an incumbent versus alternative candidates. The Vermont Republican primary is scheduled for August 2026, which will be the decisive moment for resolving this market. Until then, movement in these probabilities would likely reflect changes in candidate entry decisions, polling data, endorsements from party establishment figures, or significant shifts in Scott's approval ratings or scandal developments.
- ›Phil Scott is Vermont's sitting governor with proven ability to win statewide elections in a Democratic-leaning state, giving him structural advantages in name recognition and organization
- ›No clear, well-funded alternative Republican primary candidate has emerged as of mid-2026 to substantially challenge Scott's nomination
- ›The August 2026 Vermont Republican primary date is the binding event that will determine the winner and resolve all related market contracts
- ›Incumbent governors typically dominate their party's primary contests absent major approval collapse or scandal; Scott's current favorability data would be a critical input
- ›Low market volume on the runner-up contract (John Rodgers at 8 cents) suggests limited conviction in alternative outcomes or candidate differentiation among traders
What moved the line
- May 24John Rodgers↑13pp12→25¢ · Polymarket
- May 18John Rodgers↓6pp15→9¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (92% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
2026 Midterms: Democrats 85¢ for House, Texas Turning Purple
Democrats hold a commanding 85¢ price for House control while the Senate remains a toss-up; Texas shows surprising weakness with anti-tariff sentiment reshaping traditional Republican strongholds.
2026 House Race Tightens: Democrats slip 5¢, Republicans gain 3¢
Democratic odds to win the House fell 5¢ to 78¢ on Polymarket, while Republican odds rose 3¢ to 22¢ on Kalshi. The shift was driven by new polling showing improved Republican performance in swing districts. The generic ballot vote share is also tightening.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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