Phil Scott to win Vermont Governor Republican Primary
Phil Scott is priced at 72¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 66¢ bid, 74¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner.
Price history
72¢ current
−11¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Vermont, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Vermont Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Vermont Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Outcome
Phil Scott
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Phil Scott 75¢
Range
15¢-75¢
Family volume
$6K
Identifier
0x02c23da2...53e9
May 28, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
66¢
Ask
74¢
Spread
8¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
Family volume
$6K
Orderbook snapshot
66 / 74¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Vermont, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Vermont Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Vermont Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
Identifier
0x02c23da2…53e9
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 77¢, -5¢ versus this page.
Event family
Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$6K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Phil Scott 75¢
Current share
53%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.