What is the current probability for "Will Pump.fun reach $0.0046 by December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 28¢ (28% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Pump.fun reach $0.0046 by December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 382.7% and 57.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Pump.fun reach $0.0046 by December 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Pump.fun reach $0.0046 by December 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will Pump.fun reach $0.0046 by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

███████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

28¢

Bid/Ask 17/39¢·Spread 22¢·Vol $0·OI $604.697·Closes Jan 1, 2027·245d remaining

0x0741d61b2107c84f22751a6fd5ad38f1e59ed423828d2534cc4f810d0eff6b2f

7-day price182 snapshots · 5 regime

50¢28¢ current

Apr 820¢Apr 30

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Pump.fun (PUMP/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the PUMP/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/PUMP_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance PUMP/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 382.7%

IY (No) 57.9%

Adj IY 383%

CRI 3

RV 966%

VR 4.69

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	382.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	57.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	383%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	966%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	4.69	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.432

Spread

22¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 5:56:35 PM

Observability mediumEvent type unknown

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 5:53:10 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x0741d61b2107c84f22751a6fd5ad38f1e59ed423828d2534cc4f810d0eff6b2f yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions