Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.30 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.30 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market is pricing in only a 13% chance of average gas prices exceeding $5.30 in Florida by year-end 2026, despite offering a striking 866.9% implied yield on the Yes side—a massive risk-reward asymmetry that suggests either deep skepticism about price spikes or severe illiquidity concerns.
Analysis
This market is pricing in only a 13% chance of average gas prices exceeding $5.30 in Florida by year-end 2026, despite offering a striking 866.9% implied yield on the Yes side—a massive risk-reward asymmetry that suggests either deep skepticism about price spikes or severe illiquidity concerns. The $0 24-hour volume and minimal $322 open interest indicate this contract is essentially illiquid, making the extreme yield figure potentially misleading; the 10¢ spread is wide relative to the 13¢ price, and the modest 7-day uptick from 13¢ to 14¢ hasn't attracted meaningful trading activity. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears underpriced for a tail-risk scenario, but the lack of liquidity makes execution difficult for anyone betting on higher gas prices.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for Florida are strictly greater than $5.30 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (3)
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-5.30 yes 100