What is the current probability for "Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during April press conference?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 31¢ (31% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on April 29, 2026. 1 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during April press conference?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 100000.0% and 27422.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during April press conference?

Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during April press conference?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Polymarket, closing April 29, 2026.

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31¢

Bid/Ask 29/32¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $159.668·OI $2,269.735·Closes Apr 29, 2026·1d remaining

0x0a300841b797e237de6e614c85ffd62104f240d99a3b4755c22c2433c3f55d55

7-day price244 snapshots · 2 regime

32¢31¢ current

Apr 2620¢Apr 28

Resolution rules

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on April 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If no such statement happens by April 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.

Indicators

IY (Yes) >100,000%

IY (No) 27422.3%

Adj IY >100,000%

CRI 2

RV 1631%

VR 0.37

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	>100,000%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	27422.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	>100,000%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1631%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.37	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	4.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	6.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/28/2026, 9:44:01 AM

Indicators computed 4/28/2026, 9:38:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x0a300841b797e237de6e614c85ffd62104f240d99a3b4755c22c2433c3f55d55 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

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