US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026 is priced at 6¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 5¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
6¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$594K
Identifier
0x0ac2141f...e92a
Jun 7, 2026, 11:08 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$54
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$594K
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x0ac2141f…e92a
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 8¢, -2¢ versus this page.
Event family
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$594K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026 6¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.