Before 2027 · KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26
Before 2027 is priced at 6¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
6¢ current
−4¢Contract brief
If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before 2027
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$506
Identifier
KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26
Jun 8, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$596
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$506
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on polymarket at 7¢, -1¢ versus this page.
Event family
KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$506
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Before 2027 8¢
Current share
100%
Before 2027
kalshi · KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 6% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.