US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
7%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$635
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
0x0ac214…e92a
Analysis
This contract estimates the likelihood that the US formally recognizes Reza Pahlavi, the late Shah's son, as Iran's legitimate leader before 2026 ends. Currently priced at 7%, the probability reflects the substantial political barriers to such recognition. The Iranian government remains firmly in place, and the US has not signaled plans for diplomatic recognition of opposition figures. Any significant shift would require either a major internal collapse of Iran's government or a dramatic policy reversal by Washington. The contract essentially bets on either a revolutionary outcome or unprecedented US policy change within seven months. Key events to monitor include any major US policy announcements regarding Iran, internal Iranian political developments, or statements from State Department officials clarifying their stance toward Pahlavi.
- ›The Iranian Islamic Republic currently controls state institutions, military, and security apparatus with no imminent signs of systemic collapse
- ›US policy under current administration shows no public indicators of plans to recognize opposition government-in-exile figures
- ›Reza Pahlavi has limited institutional support within Iran and is primarily recognized among diaspora communities
- ›The timeframe (by end of 2026) compresses an already unlikely scenario into approximately 7 months
- ›Any recognition would require either a successful internal coup/revolution or an extraordinary reversal of official US policy direction
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (7% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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