US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

This market shows a modest 2-cent cross-venue gap (13¢ on Polymarket vs. 12¢ on Kalshi), suggesting mild pricing inefficiency with slightly better odds on Polymarket. The 947% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the extremely low 13% probability, but this is offset by a concerning 7 Cliff Risk Index and only $2,891 in 24-hour volume relative to $46,397 open interest, indicating potential liquidity constraints for larger positions. The price has declined 2 cents over seven days despite 258 days to expiry, suggesting modest bearish momentum as markets may be pricing in the low likelihood of formal US recognition of an Iranian opposition figure within the Trump administration's timeframe.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

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