Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau breakup before August?

This market presents an extreme risk-reward asymmetry with a 2119.9% implied yield on the "Yes" side against only 56.2% on "No," suggesting severe mispricing or near-zero conviction among traders—evidenced by the complete absence of 24-hour volume despite $269k in open interest. The 5¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 14¢ price, and the sharp 2¢ rise over seven days combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 6 indicates potential manipulation or thin liquidity conditions rather than genuine probability discovery. Most critically, the resolution criteria references July 31, 2025, while the market closes July 31, 2026—a one-year discrepancy that raises serious questions about market validity and whether this contract can even resolve properly.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau end their romantic relationship by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it's unclear whether or not they are in a romantic relationship, this market will resolve to the side with the stronger argument based on credible reporting. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Katy Perry, Justin Trudeau, or one of their representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade