Will Dan Scavino leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Will Dan Scavino leave the Trump administration before 2027?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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38¢
Bid/Ask 3/72¢·Spread 69¢·Vol $0·OI $240.881·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining
0x133cb0cae12996144dd3ceed5c5524c38e2493bf2c2f412cec16ea9e4dc86cd1
7-day price1433 snapshots · 6 regime
51¢38¢ current
Apr 820¢Apr 29

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 242.8%
IY (No) 91.2%
Adj IY 121%
CRI 2
Overround 5.4%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)242.8%
IY (No)91.2%
Adj IY121%
CRI2
Overround5.4%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.477
Spread
69¢
Computed
4/29/2026, 4:32:10 PM
Observability mediumEvent type political
Indicators computed 4/29/2026, 4:23:26 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x133cb0cae12996144dd3ceed5c5524c38e2493bf2c2f412cec16ea9e4dc86cd1 yes 100

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