Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be less than 2.50%?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be less than 2.50%?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Polymarket, closing January 8, 2027. Mexico's 2026 inflation-below-2.50% contract is pricing in just a 23% probability despite Mexico's central bank target of 3% ±1%, suggesting the market is heavily skeptical of achieving such a low threshold.
Analysis
Mexico's 2026 inflation-below-2.50% contract is pricing in just a 23% probability despite Mexico's central bank target of 3% ±1%, suggesting the market is heavily skeptical of achieving such a low threshold. The extreme 458% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 42¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity and potential mispricing, with the realized volatility of 843% reflecting high uncertainty about Mexican inflation dynamics over the next 267 days. The sharp 7-day price movement from 6¢ to 23¢ suggests recent information arrival (1.8/hour) has shifted sentiment, though the low open interest of $403 means this remains a thin, speculative position with meaningful cliff risk.
Resolution rules
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
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sf trade 0x13d6c5ff12053298c4ed6bfc794a5e3adfec6300c413fd9d07c83e2362671f17 yes 100