Will Brian Armstrong appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that Will Brian Armstrong appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?. This contract trades at 35¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The 30¢ price implies only a 30% probability of Armstrong appearing, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 329% annualized yield, suggesting either significant underpricing or substantial tail risk that the market is discounting.
Analysis
The 30¢ price implies only a 30% probability of Armstrong appearing, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 329% annualized yield, suggesting either significant underpricing or substantial tail risk that the market is discounting. With $1.08M in open interest but zero 24-hour volume and a realized volatility of 1,350%, this market appears illiquid and prone to sharp repricing, making the high yield potentially illusory given execution risk. The 259-day timeframe and neutral regime provide ample time for resolution, but the extreme vol ratio of 6.01 and 1.8 info arrivals per hour indicate this market is pricing in considerable uncertainty around Armstrong's podcast appearance.
Also on kalshi at 33¢(Δ +2¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x18682f5c3ac9f66132244ac057a2817a1b908702d424680f35de26cad232087d yes 100