Will Ceddanne Rafaela win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.5M open interest, reflected in the unusually wide 68¢ spread and sky-high 154% risk-adjusted implied yield. The 569% realized volatility and 4.54 vol ratio suggest highly erratic price discovery, with the market having moved 9¢ over seven days (40¢ to 49¢), indicating thin order books are susceptible to large moves from minimal trading activity. With 247 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative position market rather than an actively traded one, making the 48¢ price potentially unreliable for true probability assessment.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Platinum Glove award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Regime

Trade