Will Don Kelly win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2.4M open interest and a wide 33¢ spread, suggesting the $2.4M figure may reflect historical positions rather than active trading. The 475% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the wide bid-ask spread rather than genuine expected returns, while the 1473% realized volatility and 8.59 vol ratio indicate this is a highly unstable market prone to sharp price swings. The 34¢-to-24¢ price drop over seven days combined with the neutral regime and minimal information arrival (1.6/h) suggests the market may be consolidating after recent volatility, though Kelly's long odds and the 243-day timeframe to resolution mean significant repricing could occur as the 2026 season approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 National League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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