Will Project Hail Mary get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?

Project Hail Mary is priced at a 7% probability of leading the 99th Academy Awards in nominations, offering an extreme 1,527% risk-adjusted implied yield for "Yes" positions despite minimal price movement over seven days and only $90.11 in 24-hour volume. The extraordinarily high realized volatility of 2,343% and volatile ratio of 8.97 suggest extreme uncertainty around this outcome, likely driven by sparse trading liquidity ($2.3M open interest) and the distant February 2027 resolution date. The 13 cliff risk index indicates significant tail risk, possibly reflecting uncertainty about whether the film will even be released or nominated by the Academy Awards ceremony.

Resolution rules

The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. This market will resolve according to the film which is nominated for the greatest number of Oscars at the 99th Academy Awards, currently expected to take place in March of 2027. A film will be considered to be nominated for an award if it or members of its crew, cast, or production are nominated for an award for work related to that film. In the event of a tie for the greatest number of nominations, this market will resolve in favor of the film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. If for any reason no nominations are announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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