Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards
Leader sits at 44% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
The Odyssey
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
Dune: Messiah
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 28, 2027
254 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards
Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?: Project Hail Mary
0x1a7c66…7d9e
Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?: Dune: Messiah
0xa7d02a…e1f8
Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?: Disclosure Day
0x7820fd…2430
Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?: The Odyssey
0x409d7e…e161
Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?: The Social Reckoning
0x30f0ab…121d
Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?: Wild Horse Nine
0x1daa2f…aef3
Analysis
The current 53% probability reflects market expectations that one particular film will receive more Oscar nominations than its three competitors at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony. This leading contender maintains a notable edge over the second-place option at 19%, suggesting moderate confidence rather than overwhelming consensus. The probability level is driven primarily by the film's perceived critical reception, industry momentum during awards season, and its genre or studio positioning relative to competitors. Major factors affecting this outcome include the breadth and quality of a film's technical achievements, the voting patterns of Academy members in particular categories, and how production companies campaign for recognition. The resolution date of this market will be the Oscar nominations announcement, which typically occurs in January following the awards eligibility year. Until that official announcement, the probability may shift based on emerging critical reviews, box office performance, and signals from early-season award ceremonies.
- ›The leading film's nomination count will be directly determined by Academy voters' ballots cast during the official nomination voting period
- ›Critical reception and major film festival recognition (Venice, Berlin, etc.) historically correlate with nomination volume across multiple categories
- ›Campaign spending and studio political relationships have documented effects on voting outcomes within Academy demographics
- ›Technical achievement in cinematography, sound, editing, and visual effects typically drives higher nomination counts than narrative categories alone
- ›The specific category eligibility rules and submission deadlines determine which films qualify and can be nominated in each award
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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