What is the current probability for "Will Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conference?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 28¢ (28% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on April 29, 2026. 1 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conference?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 100000.0% and 23736.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conference?

Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conference?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Polymarket, closing April 29, 2026.

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28¢

Bid/Ask 27/29¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $31.737·OI $1,433.98·Closes Apr 29, 2026·1d remaining

0x1aa65ba84dd3db9adaeb7566eb434317b22cdcf391fa7105a64fad71f332d59d

7-day price142 snapshots · 3 regime

32¢28¢ current

Apr 2628¢Apr 27

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 25¢(Δ +3¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 50183.3%Close-time delta 38h

Resolution rules

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on April 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If no such statement happens by April 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.

Indicators

IY (Yes) >100,000%

IY (No) 23736.5%

Adj IY 90333%

CRI 3

RV 1030%

VR 0.27

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	>100,000%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	23736.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	90333%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1030%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.27	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	5.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	6.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/28/2026, 9:43:48 AM

Indicators computed 4/28/2026, 9:38:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x1aa65ba84dd3db9adaeb7566eb434317b22cdcf391fa7105a64fad71f332d59d yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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