Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?

Prediction markets currently give a 53% probability that Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?. This contract trades at 53¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. Bilibili Gaming is priced at a moderate 56% win probability with a notably asymmetric risk profile—the "No" side offers 180.1% implied yield versus 111.2% for "Yes," suggesting market participants view the No position as undercompensated relative to tail risks.

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53¢
Bid/Ask 51/55¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $152.464·OI $6,579.73·Closes Dec 31, 2026·252d remaining
0x1c27970809d0ec4e22757cef8628026108f91712bd6318092b65767351957dc0
7-day price203 snapshots · 12 regime
61¢53¢ current
Apr 1049¢Apr 22

Analysis

6d ago

Bilibili Gaming is priced at a moderate 56% win probability with a notably asymmetric risk profile—the "No" side offers 180.1% implied yield versus 111.2% for "Yes," suggesting market participants view the No position as undercompensated relative to tail risks. The market shows healthy liquidity with $5.3M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, though 24-hour volume of $43k is modest for a major esports betting event with nearly 9 months to expiry. The 3¢ price appreciation over seven days (53¢ to 56¢) indicates modest bullish momentum, though the neutral regime score (0.341) suggests no strong directional conviction in the broader market structure.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the League of Legends Pro League (LPL) 2026 season. If the 2026 LPL season is postponed after December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared in this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the LPL league organizers; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 128.5%
IY (No) 163.4%
Adj IY 82%
CRI 1
Overround -0.1%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)128.5%
IY (No)163.4%
Adj IY82%
CRI1
Overround-0.1%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.341
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/23/2026, 4:01:35 AM
Observability lowEvent type sports
Indicators computed 4/23/2026, 3:53:23 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x1c27970809d0ec4e22757cef8628026108f91712bd6318092b65767351957dc0 yes 100

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