Dallas vs Minnesota Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Dallas vs Minnesota Winner?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing April 23, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with the Yes contract trading at just 31¢ despite an astronomical 5733% implied yield, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with the Yes contract trading at just 31¢ despite an astronomical 5733% implied yield, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine probability assessment. The 7-day price collapse from 5¢ to 26¢ combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $87.38 and a 5¢ spread indicates this contract may have become stranded at an unrepresentative price with insufficient trading depth to correct it. With only 18 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, the market is approaching resolution uncertainty, making the extreme yield figures unreliable as probability estimates—this appears to be a liquidity trap rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
Resolution rules
If Minnesota wins the Dallas vs Minnesota professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 22, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLSGAME-26APR22DALMIN-MIN yes 100