Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?
Prediction markets currently give a 2% probability that Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?. This contract trades at 2¢ on Polymarket, closing May 27, 2026. Chelsea's top-4 finish probability shows a dramatic 48-cent divergence between Polymarket (17¢) and Kalshi (65¢), suggesting significant mispricing or different trader compositions across venues.
Analysis
Chelsea's top-4 finish probability shows a dramatic 48-cent divergence between Polymarket (17¢) and Kalshi (65¢), suggesting significant mispricing or different trader compositions across venues. The 4464% implied yield on the Yes side at Polymarket is extraordinarily high relative to the 40-day timeframe, indicating either severe underpricing or extreme skepticism about Chelsea's prospects despite the season being well underway. With only $445.95 in 24-hour volume against $18,240 open interest and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, liquidity is thin and late-stage price movements could be volatile, making this market potentially exploitable for sophisticated traders but risky for casual participants.
Also on kalshi at 25¢(Δ -23¢)
Resolution rules
This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the English Premier League standings for the 2025–26 season. If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the English Premier League standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official English Premier League tiebreaking procedures. If the 2025–26 English Premier League season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Premier League. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x2049638936027998accd2d320af8a7838ed1f673a00d0a22a288d5f678015e03 yes 100