Will Larry Ellison buy the Seattle Seahawks?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite a substantial 63% probability on Ellison, evidenced by zero 24-hour volume, a massive 36¢ spread, and realized volatility of 2,945% that dwarfs the 18.12x vol ratio. The price has surged 50% in seven days (42¢ to 63¢), yet the "No" side offers a counterintuitive 430.6% implied yield compared to 148.5% for "Yes," suggesting the market may be mispriced or reflecting extreme uncertainty about whether any sale occurs at all—particularly given the resolution requires announcement by September 2026, leaving substantial cliff risk (index of 2) as the deadline approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the named individual who is publicly announced as having agreed to purchase the Seattle Seahawks by September 9, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET (the beginning of the 2026 NFL regular season). If no sale is announced before this time, this market will resolve to "Other". For the purposes of this market, an announcement must confirm that the Paul G. Allen estate (also known as Vulcan LLC) has reached a binding agreement to sell a majority interest in the team. Minority sales will not be considered. If a sale is announced to an individual that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”. If two or more listed individuals are announced as joint owners or part of the same ownership group, this market will resolve to the individual announced as the controlling owner. If two or more listed individuals are announced as the controlling owners, this market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the completion (closing) of the sale is not required. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the National Football League or the Seattle Seahawks. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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