Will Cal Raleigh win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Cal Raleigh win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing November 13, 2026. Cal Raleigh's odds have roughly doubled over the past week (11¢ to 22¢), suggesting growing market confidence in the Mariners catcher's candidacy, though the 23% implied probability remains modest for a player being actively priced.
Analysis
Cal Raleigh's odds have roughly doubled over the past week (11¢ to 22¢), suggesting growing market confidence in the Mariners catcher's candidacy, though the 23% implied probability remains modest for a player being actively priced. The extreme realized volatility of 2,695% and 651.7% implied yield on the yes side indicate this is a highly speculative, low-liquidity market ($1.37M open interest, $14.4K daily volume) where large bets can move prices dramatically. With 211 days to expiry and a wide 35¢ spread, this market appears to be pricing in significant uncertainty about Raleigh's 2026 performance relative to other AL outfielders and DH candidates.
Also on kalshi at 7¢(Δ +4¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x3da34b8984fc18f9894a7afb26e68fa4bee5f060d11549f61256336cafee877f yes 100