Will Cal Raleigh win AL Hank Aaron Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Cal Raleigh win AL Hank Aaron Award?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing December 8, 2026. This market shows extremely illiquid conditions with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread despite modest $1,372 open interest, suggesting minimal trader activity.
Analysis
This market shows extremely illiquid conditions with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread despite modest $1,372 open interest, suggesting minimal trader activity. The 11¢ price implies Cal Raleigh has just an 11% chance of winning the award, though the asymmetric implied yields (1,781% for Yes versus 13.5% for No) reflect the thin liquidity rather than genuine probability assessment. With 236 days until expiration and a modest 7¢ price increase over the past week, this appears to be a speculative long-shot position with meaningful cliff risk (12 rating) that could see sharp repricing if Raleigh's 2026 performance trajectory becomes clearer.
Also on polymarket at 10¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
If Cal Raleigh wins the Pro Baseball American League Hank Aaron Award in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLBALHAARON-26-CRAL yes 100