Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing signals with a 475.9% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $6.8K open interest, suggesting illiquidity is driving the outsized return metric rather than genuine edge.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing signals with a 475.9% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $6.8K open interest, suggesting illiquidity is driving the outsized return metric rather than genuine edge. The 1,592% realized volatility and 6.98 vol ratio indicate wild price swings disconnected from fundamentals, while the sharp 4-cent drop over 7 days (27¢ to 23¢) combined with a 5-cent spread and 2.8 info arrivals per hour suggests this thin market is highly susceptible to noise and sentiment shifts. With 257 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the low probability pricing may reflect either genuine skepticism about Trump launching an official token or simply the market's struggle to find equilibrium in an illiquid venue.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only tokens which are confirmed to have been launched by Donald Trump, either through posts from official social media channels, or otherwise confirmed by public statements will qualify. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x3e531a2beecc6a9bd1b088998133749c3e41e57ed3c44694d93b5de8f1169c90 yes 100