Eric Adams charged by December 31?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Eric Adams charged by December 31?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The 28¢ price implies a modest 28% probability that NYC Mayor Eric Adams faces criminal charges by year-end 2026, despite the market showing extreme volatility (441% realized vol) and a lopsided 362% annualized yield for "Yes" positions—suggesting significant uncertainty or potential mispricing.
Analysis
The 28¢ price implies a modest 28% probability that NYC Mayor Eric Adams faces criminal charges by year-end 2026, despite the market showing extreme volatility (441% realized vol) and a lopsided 362% annualized yield for "Yes" positions—suggesting significant uncertainty or potential mispricing. With zero 24-hour volume but $7.65M open interest and an 8¢ spread, liquidity is severely constrained relative to position size, creating execution risk for traders seeking to adjust exposure. The elevated cliff risk index (3) and 2.35 volatility ratio indicate this market is pricing in discrete news events rather than gradual probability shifts, though the neutral regime and flat 7-day price action (27¢ to 28¢) suggest recent equilibrium despite the underlying legal proceedings against Adams.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Eric Adams by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xddeaff75eb4907978e713253392c3fc96bf1bd116660a60594ebaef567d9dda8 yes 100