Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The 8¢ Polymarket price implies SpaceX will launch only 180-199 times in 2026—a notably pessimistic view given the company's 2024 pace of roughly 22 launches per quarter, which would project to ~88 launches annually, well below this range's floor.
Analysis
The 8¢ Polymarket price implies SpaceX will launch only 180-199 times in 2026—a notably pessimistic view given the company's 2024 pace of roughly 22 launches per quarter, which would project to ~88 launches annually, well below this range's floor. A significant 12¢ cross-venue gap exists with Kalshi (20¢), suggesting either Polymarket underpricing or Kalshi overpricing, though the thin $462 daily volume on Polymarket raises liquidity concerns. The extreme 1640% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 5.04x volatility ratio and recent sharp 3¢ decline from 11¢ signals either a mispriced tail outcome or speculative positioning rather than fundamental conviction.
Also on kalshi at 17¢(Δ -5¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
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sf trade 0x48b60dee314c783580a450b88f35e1ca500fd6a7410f1be6a724615f4f389ef4 yes 100