How many SpaceX launches in April?
Leader sits at 97% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 72%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 120
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
72¢
Above 140
Spread
25pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
116 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 160
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-160
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 170
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-170
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 140
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-140
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 120
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-120
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 180
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-180
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 190
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-190
Analysis
This 32% probability reflects the chance that SpaceX completed exactly 13 launches during April 2026. The estimate sits between Kalshi's bullish 41% assessment and Polymarket's more conservative 19%, a 22-percentage-point gap suggesting disagreement about SpaceX's operational tempo or how to interpret April's historical launch patterns. The probability would increase if recent data showed SpaceX maintaining or accelerating its launch cadence; it would decrease if new information indicated mission delays, recovery issues, or reduced scheduling density. The key driver of uncertainty is SpaceX's actual April launch count, which becomes fully verifiable once official records close. Related markets on the same venues price "above 12" launches in 2026 at 44%, suggesting traders view exactly-13 as a discrete but plausible outcome rather than a central expectation. Resolution depends on confirmed SpaceX launch manifests and official statements about completed orbital flights in April.
- ›Kalshi contracts price above-12 launches at 44¢ and above-13 at only 4¢, indicating a steep probability cliff around 13 launches and suggesting traders view this threshold as near the margin of expectations
- ›Polymarket's 19% average is substantially lower than Kalshi's 41%, suggesting either different data interpretation, risk appetite, or liquidity concentration in lower-probability contracts on that venue
- ›SpaceX's historical April launch rates, launch vehicle availability (Falcon 9 manifest density), and any reported delays or recovery challenges directly determine whether 13 launches is above or below typical monthly volume
- ›The 22-percentage-point cross-venue gap indicates significant market uncertainty; resolution will test which venue's aggregate assessment better predicted SpaceX's actual April operational capacity
- ›Official SpaceX launch records and FAA/commercial space tracking data will provide definitive verification of April 2026 launch count, making this a binary, fully resolvable outcome
What moved the line
- Sep 5Above 140↓5pp76→71¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 2Above 140↓4pp83→79¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4Above 140↓4pp80→76¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 1Above 140↓3pp86→83¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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